For the weather nerds....

[Bryce]

Forecast Accuracy for different weather stations..

for Brainerd Dec 2011

http://weatherspark.com/forecast_accura ... ted-States

Wind Speed: Daily RMSE


The baseline is pretty much looking at what happened previous years and guessing based on that, if your predition isn't doing better then that... then it probably isn't very good.


How far it was off worst case



Being wrong by 20 mph at 5 days out, shows you how much stuff can change.

There is a bunch of those stuff to look at.... but it is pretty interesting.

Plug in your own airport or weather station to see how it does.

[Denis]

Interesting. NOAA has a negative bias, so whatever it says for wind speed forecast, it will probably be windier.

[JRN]

WOULDN'T YOU RATHER BE SURPRIZED with better than expected winds, than an over optimistic forecast that lets you down?
BTW: Saw the piece on 'CCO about your cell tracking research, Den. VERY impressive. I can think of alot of uses, some good & some not so...