Tapping the Weather Knowledge of Tighe, Stroh and Kevin O.

[Randy]

Great reading. Just want to add the dimension of micrometeorology. So why is it so much more difficult to forecast winds in the summer than in spring and fall? Have you noticed how nobody seems to be getting their wind forecasts right lately? The models forecast 20-30 mph winds two days out and then, poof, it vanishes to nothing. Or maybe there's a forecast of nothing and it suddenly starts blowing 15-25 mph, like it did for me yesterday? Maybe there's a forecast of 15-25 mph from the south, and it ends up blowing 5 mph from NE?

It's kind of like trying to predict what the stock market's going to do on Monday. There are models we can use, much like the billiard player plans the skilled shot, only to realize someone's going to drop an extra ball on the table just as he hits the ball. That extra ball is often micrometeorology. The two hours of fun I had yesterday resulted from a slow moving cell just north of Forest Lake. Many years, these systems have given us the prefrontal winds that simply don't show up that often on models, or if they do, they're seldom accurate for the time line. That cell was impacted by a very moist ground and summer heat. It created the mini pressure gradient necessary for some great rides. The play of the sun and clouds gave it the 10 mph boost, as the thermal activity contributed to the gift of the day. Certainly, the weather Lake Superior creates can have a dramatic impact on sailing conditions in our area. There have been days where the NE wind and colder temps from the water have affected the wind direction and strength all the way down to North Branch. And for all my years of trying to figure out what Mother will do, the mystery of the slightest movements can turn a 30-40 mph forecast to calm.

So, I'll check with my stock broker, look at charts, read articles and make my best guess as to what may happen tomorrow on Wall Street, but I'll forever be humbled by the surprise of what comes. Similarly, I'll read the charts, rely on them more in spring and fall, and this time of year, will tend to take forecasts with less credibility given the complexities of micrometeorology. For now, disappointed with the fading forecast for NW fun, but happy for what our little micro weather system gave yesterday.

As Tighe wrote, "enjoy the day as it unfolds, no matter what the wind does". SUP has been a great tool to ease my restless mind when the wind doesn't turn out as expected. If it's not windy Thursday, we'll be doing our last SUP yoga class on Big Marine. Let me know if you're interested in this or a SUP eco tour down the St. Croix.

[Tighe]

fully agree Randy. Last weekends epic session on Mille was the result of that huge cell that developed, rolled through and headed toward the cities. There was a good couple hours of riding following the storm. Yesterday about noon I checked the airport readings around the state and saw that Brainerd was 23-28mph and thunderstorms, and St cloud was 18-26mph and clear. Checked the isobars...nothing stacking up, checked the radar and saw the cell. It was moving East. Shot up to WB and got a nice hour of riding. The cell blossomed and was just north of the lake. As it grew the wind went from SSW to SW to W to NW. Crazy to start at Ramsey shooting out to the yacht club then at the end be riding parallel to shore in an off shore wind. The shift really only happened in the last 15 min.

Over the year I too have had quite a few sessions in the summer on what I call storm winds. I remember many days on Cannon ripping for a few hours as storms rolled through the cities. Or sessions at Waconia with massive thunderheads passing by to the North. It seems like a lot of times the winds get pulled right toward these cells, like a vacuum and they can be extremely steady.

I am not promoting storm chasing with kites. These weather patterns are extremely unpredictable. Riding with any signs of weather activity (cloud line, storm system, etc. ) is extremely risky. Winds could change in strength and/or direction at any moment. Remember also that with a kite you have a lightning rod 80 feet in the air.

ride safe and keep your eye on the sky.

[Kevinousdigian]

I agree those surprise sessions are wonderful and you have to be able to drop what your doing to get those rides in. Yesterday was a beautiful day on Shell Lake with steady lighter winds - that front did move to fast and further south but still turned out to be a nice day.

Mid-last week I wrote the 10 day MRF showed the coolest air of the season would be coming in Tuesday or Wednesday and it has stayed on track. Tuesday looks like one of those awesome W going NW wind days that blows all day with no storms in sight. Get out and enjoy it!! Anyone hitting Father Hennepin or staying local?

[nickfastswim]

If the forecast holds am planing to hit mille early tomorrow and ride all day! What is the launch site like at Father Hennepin?

[Kevinousdigian]

For kiting it's a more difficult launch, not like malmo, because you can barely do a drift launch and there is swim stuff in water this time of year. It's sure fun though when you can get out.

From the isobar maps it looks to me like the wind will be more westish early and then go wnw and then nw. NOAA is showing NW all over state most of day but in Isle they are only predicting 11-16 which seems weak to me. What do you guys think? Sure seems like at least 15-20 and more likely 15-25 on ML which should be sweet rollers at FH. I think it's sweet spot is 15-30, when you get 30-50 it actually gets choppier and chaotic over most of the area except the sweet spots which still get the big rollers.

[nickfastswim]

Thanks Kevin. Riding some nice rollers sounds very tempting! My dad might want to practice flying the kite a little so i guess malmo will do on a NW. Just as long as its 15+ I am happy
I definitely hope it will be at least 15-20. Currently in the Dakotas its 18-28 and if those pressure gradients carry over into tomorrow it will be a pretty good day on the big lake.

[smrsco]

Count me in, I was able to take tomorrow off!

The only thing left is to decide where to head, Mille or Superior?