Winter Forecast - long range

[Matt V]

I have had my fill of the soft water and am looking forward to the white from horizon to horizon.

Anybody have any insight other than below for what we are looking at for a winter long range forecast?

Have any of the past forecasts for winter ever come true? (since 2008, every forecast has been wrong since I started snowkiting)

Should I just look outside and wait for it to snow?

Should I keep giving my fortune teller more money to tell me it could be cold or warm this winter?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... w/18574742

[JRN]

ADHERE TO THE PURELY SCIENTIFIC PROGNOSTICATION: The oaks foreshadow a harsh winter by their abundance of acorns, thus providing the squirrels with a winter's worth of food supply. The wooly catepillars have a thicker coat needed for the upcoming season. The moss growing on Uncle Mike's bald spot is greener than usual this year...don't ask how we know!

[JRN]

AFTER MORE RESEARCH, it is when the middle stripe of the wooly worm is wider than usual, that the winter will be harsher; thought you should know. Paul Douglas of Weather Nation commented that he expected a milder winter this year: A later date for the lakes to freeze over, but snowier overall than last winter. I like riding on the ice, but would welcome the softer landings on snow. In either case, I plan on shopping for a better helmet this year, and give my brain bucket a break.

[Matt V]

So what you are saying is that, as usual, the weather man is wrong?

I kind of agree with that too, though I wish a milder warmer winter with no snow south of the arctic circle would have been called for. I believe the climatatoligists and weatheroligists and voodoooligists all have a pact to use reverse psychology. So this good winter forecast is actually looking like a bad thing for me. Unless they finally get it right -or wrong? or right? Wait, now I am confused.

But again, I am completely sick of soft water. Going out again today here in eastern Iowa, but I am just not super enthused. That said, our first teaser snow is supposedly coming on Tuesday.

I am not a fan of ice since early on in my kiting career, like when I was still sucking on the bottle (of vodka), I started jumping off of farmers terraces. Now terrain is all I care about and the reason I want to get the hell off of the water. I own a "SwitchBlade" but I just always wish I don't need it. I only like it when it saves me from going 1 or two weeks without a session.

Here is more of the same forecast junk,

http://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange

http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.p ... Itemid=179

[JRN]

I get frustrated, too. Maybe it is the resignation to the fact that we have no control, and can only act to accept that which exists. Dylan put it best, "You don't need a weatherman to see which way the wind blows."

[JRN]

I like the romantic notion of looking for a halo around the moon. It oftens foreshadows a change in the weather like rain or snow. The light refracts off the ice crystals in cirrus clouds.

[Matt V]

I was watching a video of a revised winter long range forecast that said there is the potential for the Greenland blocking high to disappear just like 2011-2012. That would mean the cold & snow would stay up around Alexandria, MN. Everything south of that would be more along the lines of rain and wide open water.

On that note, hopefully I have the means to do some exploring up around Alexandria this winter.